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The Week That Was:

• Freddie Mac in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® reported that 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.97 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending March 4, 2010. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.15 percent.
• The 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.11 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.16 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 5.08 percent.
• Jan personal income was less than expected, up 0.1% while personal spending was strong at +0.5%.
• Feb auto sales were expected to have increased, and they did; the only company that reported a decline was Toyota.
• On the housing front; Jan pending home sales (the number of homes, placed under sales contract) jumped 12.3% from January 2009, but down 7.6% compared to December. According to National Association of Realtors, the drop was mainly because of harsh winter weathers.

The Week That Will Be:

• There are only a few data points that will garner attention; they do not appear until Thursday and Friday when retail sales, weekly jobless claims and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index hit.
• The key this week is Treasury auctions; a total of $74B in 3 yr and 10 yr notes and a 30 yr bond on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

Although the mortgage markets are presently holding well, if treasury rates break out to an up-trending move (3.75% on the 10 yr) mortgage rates will follow quickly. Unless there is a major shift in sentiment about the strength of the economic rebound, to the view of a double dip coming, interest rates won’t likely decline much more. The overall view is for increasing rates this year; estimates from 4.15% on the 10 yr note to as high as 5.00%; we don’t see 5.00%, more likely 4.25%. That would mean 30 yr mortgage rates at 5.50% to 5.60%.

I subscribe to live bond market movements and tweet about it. If you would like to be updated about live mortgage rates follow me on Twitter or get our Live Mortgage Rate Quote .

Contributed by – Shashank Shekhar. Originally posted at – LendingExpertBlog